Bitcoin Halving Countdown
Estimated time to block 1,050,000, computed live from the real blockchain height.
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Live data: mempool.space (blockchain) and Binance (price). Auto-refresh every 2 minutes.
What is the halving?
Every 210,000 blocks —roughly every 4 years— the reward Bitcoin miners receive is cut in half. It has been written into the protocol since 2009: Bitcoin's monetary policy, predictable and non-negotiable. At the next halving the reward drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC per block, slashing the daily issuance of new bitcoin overnight.
After the four previous halvings, Bitcoin went through bull phases peaking at all-time highs 12-18 months later — a suggestive pattern, but with only four observations it guarantees nothing about the future.
Halving history
| Halving | Date | Block | Reward |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1º | 28/11/2012 | 210,000 | 50 → 25 BTC |
| 2º | 09/07/2016 | 420,000 | 25 → 12.5 BTC |
| 3º | 11/05/2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC |
| 4º | 20/04/2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| 5º | ~2028 | 1,050,000 | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC |
Cycle phases: where we are
In the three completed cycles with data (2012, 2016, 2020), the top arrived between days 371 and 548 after the halving, and the bear-market bottom between days 777 and 924 (roughly 26-30 months later). The bar places the current moment within the ~4-year cycle that began in April 2024:
Days since halving–
Historical top window–
Historical bottom window–
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The objective data from previous cycles
| Cycle | Top (days) | Multiple* | Bottom (days) | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 371d (12/2013) | ×94 | 777d (01/2015) | −86% |
| 2016 | 526d (12/2017) | ×30 | 889d (12/2018) | −84% |
| 2020 | 548d (11/2021) | ×8 | 924d (11/2022) | −78% |
| 2024 | In progress — halving on 2024-04-20 at ~$63,850 | |||
* Multiple from the halving-day price to the cycle top. The series shows clear diminishing returns (×94 → ×30 → ×8) and softening drawdowns (−86% → −84% → −78%).
Cycle simulator
Adjust the two variables and the simulator projects the current cycle\u2019s top and bottom. The defaults extrapolate the diminishing-returns trend: each historical multiple was ~0.3× the previous one (×8 × 0.3 ≈ ×2.3), and each drawdown about 5 points milder.
Multiple over the halving-day price ($63,850): –
Historical: ×94 (2012) · ×30 (2016) · ×8 (2020). Trend extrapolation suggests ×2–×3.
Drawdown from top to bottom: –
Historical: −86% · −84% · −78%. The trend suggests −70/−75%.
Simulated cycle top–
Simulated cycle bottom–
Top vs. current price–
Bottom time window–
Per the 777-924 day historical pattern, the simulated bottom would fall within the indicated window. Three cycles are a tiny sample: this is an educational extrapolation of past data, not a prediction.
Strictly educational tool. The date is an estimate based on average block time and does not constitute investment advice.
Want the full cycle, not just the countdown?
The Crypto Terminal app overlays the current cycle on normalized past cycles, with the Mayer Multiple, AHR999, Puell and Pi Cycle Top computed live.
Get it on Google Play